A few days ago, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced the rather mild measures by which the country was going to fight the outbreak of coronavirus infection. Self-isolation for a week at a temperature and cough. That is essentially all. The British authorities wanted the majority of the population to get sick and develop immunity. But have already changed their minds.
Now Boris Johnson advises to cancel optional trips, if possible work from home, and with symptoms go into self-isolation for 14 days. Perhaps the reason for the tougher advice was an open letter from 200 scholars who called on the government for tougher measures. But, most likely, the decision of the British authorities was influenced by the calculations of the professors of Imperial College in London, which specializes in the analysis of global infections.
Scientists estimate that following a mild scenario to respond to the current threat, the UK government puts 260,000 people at risk. That is how many people can die due to an outbreak of coronavirus. This is not only those infected at risk, but also a large number of patients with other diseases who will suffer when the national health system (and intensive care units in particular) collapse under the blow of the unfolding epidemic.
Such figures were obtained by scientists during the simulation, which took into account the factors of self-isolation for different periods of time, the social distance of the elderly, and the reduction of working contacts. For the numbers stated above, Johnson’s initial introductory notes were used, which advised people with symptoms to close at home for a week.
With the ban on mass events, travel restrictions, the number of deaths can be reduced to 20,000 or even less, writes The guardian. Everything will depend on how long restrictive measures will be in effect. They can last until the end of summer. But there is a chance that the virus will still not completely disappear. And after lifting the bans, the gates will have to be shut again, since only a small part of the population will have immunity.